Hey Chuck Todd, what the hell?, by BrianInNYC

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I for one am really started to wonder just how much MSNBC is cooking the books to keep the notion of this election being a horse race alive.  Earlier this week with much fanfare MSNBC debuted their electoral college projection map.  As the map and numbers came on the screen my first response was “what the fuck?”.  Since I check out the other online projection maps daily  I knew there was something wrong with MSNBC’s projection, to call it conservative is an understatement at best.  Look at the MSNB numbers compared to other projections available (as of 4/06/08):

Poll Obama McCain Toss up
MSNBC 210 189 139
Pollster.com 284 157 97
VoteFromAboard.org 289 236 13

RCP Electoral College
238 163 137
Zogby Electoral
College Map
273 146 119

Also why doesn’t MSNBC like the other projections tell us the source of their data is?   I leave it for you to decide is MSNBC cooking the books for entertainment value or are their numbers to be trusted?

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96 Comments

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96 responses to “Hey Chuck Todd, what the hell?, by BrianInNYC

  1. *Authors note: I originally titled this piece “Hey Chuck Todd, what the fuck?” but Sheila got all pissy on me!

    😈

  2. Chef Sheila

    LOLLOL Oh Geez.

  3. Chef Sheila

    Seriously,

    I really would like an explanation….are they being conservative with battle ground states until after the conventions? There should be more movement when the average Joe begins to pay attention.

  4. I’d be happy to know what they are basing their numbers on, much less an explanation.

  5. Hillary’s is starting to look a little more than desperate, being the center of attention seems to be the only thing that matters to Bill and Hillary, they disgust me.

  6. dog's eye view

    Brian: interesting. Bears watching. MSNBC is the outlier there.

    Appears they’ve given McCain more states than Real Clear Politics. What’s up with that?

  7. dnd

    Brian,
    You watch MSNBC for something other than entertainment value? Silly boy.

  8. dnd

    “*Authors note: I originally titled this piece “Hey Chuck Todd, what the fuck?” but Sheila got all pissy on me!”

    You could have used Stephanie Miller’s phrase: “What the Fox?” which would have been appropriate 😉

  9. dog's eye view

    What the Fox? Love that. The F bomb is going on hiatus in this house for a while.

  10. dog's eye view

    Obama heading off for Hawaii weeklong vacation tomorrow.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-campaign7-2008aug07,0,5641940.story

    Safe travels and happy trails. He needs a break; wish he and his family could get more than a week or 10 days.

  11. I saw the map last night on MSNBC and thought it looked very wrong, but my memory is shot…..so thanks for writing this piece Brian…it’s nice having someone really paying attention to the details…..

    I think someone posted TV ratings the other day and it showed MSNBC is really doing poorly …..

  12. Good for him.

    Hopefully he will have some privacy.

  13. Yeah the timing of Obama’s vacation is good, the Olympics will be going on and it will people a chance to detox on politics.

  14. dnd

    “I think someone posted TV ratings the other day and it showed MSNBC is really doing poorly …..”

    I’m speculating here, but when Imus comes back next week, I expect RFD-TV to beat MSNBC in the ratings.

  15. dog's eye view

    Interesting link put up on Craig’s blog. Haven’t read it yet, but looked worth reading.

    LOL. This Brit did his fact-finding about the white working class — whom he calls rednecks a few paragraphs in — an hour’s drive from chez dog.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4428685.ece

  16. Horsedooty

    not a WTH moment but Emily Robinson of the Dixie Chicks has divorced husband Charlie Robinson.

    http://music.msn.com/music/article.aspx/?news=326060&GT1=28102

    FUTK

  17. dog's eye view

    Fox that emoticon.

  18. dog's eye view

    eprof: for you:

    WSJ poll: Is the government’s case against Bruce Ivins convincing?

    http://forums.wsj.com/viewtopic.php?t=3590

    Kinda lopsided.

  19. dog's eye view

    FBI paints chilling portrait of anthrax suspect.

    (If you check out wsj.com, there are related articles up on the site.)

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121802782147216721.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone

  20. dog's eye view

    Andrew Sullivan has an interesting idea: challenges his readers to create and submit negative and positive ads on behalf of the presidential candidates (Nader and McKinney too, if anyone is so inclined).

    At its best, perhaps a way to innoculate the public against the stupid, demeaning and possibly effective negative ads to come.

    A challenge to aspiring Macaca recorders. Those who want to start the next round of viral video sensations.

    Could be good or really bad; interesting to see what’s submitted. Sullivan requires the ads be factually accurate, if terribly biased as well.

    http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/taking-back-the.html

    Can’t tell if this is opening a Pandora’s Box or a window for some fresh air. Let the compiling and editing begin.

  21. Rezdog

    Brian, Here’s a good article about that Gallup polling last week

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080807_5351.php

  22. Yo Rex, about time you made an appearance!

  23. Rezdog

    LOL, finally huh?

    I had enough of it this am and had to give it a rest.

  24. Last thing I want to do is spend yet another day talking about the Clintons, snooze city!

  25. Rezdog

    The media needs to get a camera and mic in front of that Faisal Abdullah and his clan like they did with Rezko, etc. These same folks apparently gave to HRC too.

  26. That story is creepy, I found it a bit of a jaw dropper!

  27. High-Ranking McCain Campaign Officials Were Paid Lobbyists For Hess

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/mccain_advisers_have_also_doub.php

    TPM is really doing a good job on following McCain’s money trail, there is going to be a lot of shit hitting the fan in a few weeks.

  28. McCain montage of statements

    Walking home….later on……

    Good to see you here Rezdog!

  29. dog's eye view

    Welcome Rez! Please let us be your home away from home.

  30. I wonder if the Clinton supporters have any idea of the troubles they are causing for her. It’s in Hillary’s best interest that the convention go as smoothly as possible. One of the corner stones of politics is pay back. Hillary is on the verge of becoming a party outcast. And I’m willing to bet Bill won’t be named special envoy to anything in an Obama administration.

  31. dog's eye view

    More plain speaking from David Gergen. Sridhar Pappu article in The Washington Independent. (Found link via Andrew Sullivan’s blog.)

    … “Here is a man who grew up in a broken home whose father left at a young age and who was raised by a single mother,” said David R. Gergen … “It’s an admirable story of rising from rags to riches, one that resonates. In many ways he’s a modern Horatio Alger.

    “Now the McCain campaign wants …. you to see him as a man who went to fancy schools; who has had the beneficiary of an elite life, and is increasingly removed from the mainstream of normal American life. They want to create someone who is ‘The Other.’ That’s what they did for John Kerry. They succeeded in turning his medals of honor in Vietnam into a liability.

    “…. the McCain campaign wants to turn Obama’s strength into a weakness and make him seem like a celebrity who has nothing to offer but high-blown words.,” Gergen continued. “He’s obviously not in the same league as Britney Spears or Paris Hilton. They’ve gone way too far with that. But we’ve seen where strategies that have been derided by commentators have been effective with voters.

    “We’ve learned from previous campaigns that the effective way to create an alternative story for your rival is the summer before the fall campaign,” Gergen noted. “You can put a ball and chain on an opponent and he’s going to have a hard time running a race in the fall.”

    …..

    Pappu reports that Ed Rollins doesn’t think McCain’s “elitist” charge will pass the smell test.

    “It’s a nice try,” Rollins said, “but [Obama’s] not an elitist. That’s not a sustained campaign tactic. Here was someone who grew up with nothing verses the son of four-star admirals. It’s a nice try and a good diversion in the first part of August, but painting him as an elitist is not a winning strategy going into the fall.”

    Let’s hope.

  32. dog's eye view

    Here’s link to Pappu’s article, and some previous ones that look worth a read.

    Sri Pappu used to write for the New York Observer. He’s a lively writer and has good sources.

    http://www.washingtonindependent.com/view/obamas-story

  33. Karolenna

    Hey, I’m back from babysitting but need to leave in a few. Can you believe, I have a social thing tonight. Geeze, I miss all the action here. And, this is the place for real action!!

    “The media needs to get a camera and mic in front of that Faisal Abdullah and his clan like they did with Rezko, etc. These same folks apparently gave to HRC too.”

    This is something I’ve said over and over again. Wait until 2012 and see who is on the donor list of the Bill Clinton library (or as KO says, libary). I’ve said all along that the reason that list doesn’t come out now to vet them is that they have some of the same donors they complained that Obama had.

  34. dnd

    “And I’m willing to bet Bill won’t be named special envoy to anything in an Obama administration”

    I’ve heard part of the Hillary-Barack negotiations are if she doesn’t raise a fuss at the convention, he’ll appoint Bill special envoy to Gambia…

  35. I think Gambia is the perfect spot for him!

  36. Karolenna

    Brian, I believe the Clinton supporters will try to make trouble. She comes out this morning trying to say we’re going to do this and we’re going to do that, then we are behind Obama but in the end I believe she will look pretty pathetic. You know that all of the supers are not going back to her. What will it look like when that roll call is lower than she thinks? It would just separate the D’s too much. It will make her look pathetic.

    The Clinton’s think it’s all about them. Not the party. I personally believe that she wants to cause a ruckus because she wants it in 2012. That will never, ever happen. Believe me. There are many Repugs who are voting for Obama this year. I just found another one last night who said she would never vote for McCain and is voting for Obama, but she does not want Hilliary in there either. Too many Independents and Repugs are voting for Obama to put Hilliary on the ticket. She’s on there, we lose.

    Leave it to the Ds to destroy themselves….again!!!

  37. K there is one thing I am very certain of, Hillary will never live in the white house again, and at this rate I doubt she’ll even be a dinner guest.

  38. Karolenna

    I meant to say that the Independents and Regpus are voting for Obama but they do not want Hilliary on the ticket. They would probably not vote if she’s there. She does nothing for him except possibly bring along a few disgruntled women. He can get more votes with I’s and R’s w/o Clinton.

  39. dnd

    Gail Collins on McCain talking energy in Sturgis:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/07/opinion/07collins.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

    Referring to congress and voting on offshore oil drilling McCain said: “Tell them to come back and get to work!” John McCain yelled out. “Tell them to get to work!”

    Memo to McCain: If there’s one thing you don’t want to mention around a bunch of drunk bikers is Sturgis, it’s “get back to work.”

    At the same rally he said Obama was out of touch and that he wanted to “drill here and now.”

    Ain’t much oil in Sturgis, SD. Wrong state. Maybe he was referring to the Bakken Shale formation in North Dakota, which is giving remarkable returns.

  40. dnd

    “I think Gambia is the perfect spot for him!”

    So does Hillary 😉

  41. Karolenna

    Speaking of drilling and oil, I received an email last night from MoveOn saying that Pat Tiberi, a local Repug congressman, is sending out mass emails to the R’s all over Central Ohio giving them false information on Obama’s plan. There was a rally in Columbus by MoveOn at 11:00 today addressing this mass email. Tiberi is such a wussie!! Big time.

  42. speaking of drilling! I got an email from Spirit Airlines yesterday, who I’ve flown on once, never again, horrible airline, anyway, the subject on the email was, “We support offshore drilling and we support lower air fairs” I had them remove me from their mailing list.

  43. Karolenna

    Brian, It’s the Repugs at their old games again with Karl Rove, who BTW should be in prison, who is at the helm of all of this. Anything filthy has Rove involved.

  44. Rezdog

    Hi all,

    In and out all day today.

    Of oil and drilling. I think Obama might consider getting out in front on this compromise proposal by the ‘gang of 10’ — formally the New Energy Reform Act of 2008

    It’s one with positions he mostly supports and McCain mostly opposes.

    From what I read it’s something with which Obama could better position himself on Energy policy in the eyes of the voters. It’s all show anyway at this time.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/05/energy.debate/?iref=

  45. Rezdog

    News Flash: Someone just busted for threatening the O Man

  46. Karolenna

    “News Flash: Someone just busted for threatening the O Man”

    Maybe it Billo Clinton?

  47. Karolenna

    I hate to say this as much as I love Obama, but I’ve said all along he better pick a very good VP because the chances of some redneck harming him is great. There are stupid biggots out there in America even in ’08. They are places you would not think!!

  48. dog's eye view

    RE Obama supporting the Gang of Ten: Great way to open up a wedge between McCain and constant traveler Lindsey Graham too. A two-fer. Could make for some interesting press appearances.

  49. dog's eye view

    New York’s got snakeheads in its ponds and rivers too. Not good.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/07/nyregion/07towns.html?ref=nyregion

  50. McCain camp just announced they are going to review some of the funds brought in. Attaboy to TPM!

  51. dog's eye view

    That’s great news. TPM does work hard; kudos. We need someone to go where the corporate-owned news industry won’t .

  52. dog's eye view

    From NY Times story:

    During pretrial proceedings, Mr. Hamdan, a father of two daughters in Yemen, and the judge, a career Navy lawyer, had regularly exchanged smiles and, on occasion, chats. Before he left the bench, Judge Allred, said a few parting words to the man he had gotten to know in a most unusual way.

    “Mr. Hamdan,” Judge Allred said, “I hope the day comes that you are able to return to your wife and daughters and your country.”

    “God willing,” Mr. Hamdan said in the rudimentary English he picked up while in American custody.

    “Insh-allah,” said Judge Allred, repeating the same phrase in Arabic.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/08/washington/08gitmo.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

  53. dog's eye view

    LOVE this. 3:14 minutes well spent.

    First contender in Andrew Sullivan’s Take Back the Campaign video contest.

    http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/taking-back-t-3.html

  54. dog's eye view

    American Journalism Review on Cable’s Clout, by Paul Fahri

    header: “With their obsessive single-topic focus, are the three 24-hour cable news channels setting the agenda for the rest of the media when it comes to the presidential campaign—even though most of the material they endlessly flog originates somewhere else?”
    ==========

    This seems ass backwards to me:

    CNN DC Bureau Chief David Bohrman:

    …. “Newspapers are having a rough time right now. They don’t have the immediacy of TV or the Web. They’ve got to figure out how to capture that, capture that sweet spot of relevance…. Some newspapers are still trapped in writing about yesterday.”

    Thanks to the competitive jolt of the Internet, Bohrman says, CNN has learned to do things faster and to get news on the air sooner to compete with the Web as a breaking-news medium. “There’s much more of a deadline consciousness now at CNN than there was even five years ago,” he says.”
    =======

    Up faster with less and less content. Newspapers’ stock in trade is still the ability to go long on a complicated story, and they’re dumbing their coverage down to compete with cable soundbite attention spans. How much would you understand of the US attorneys firings if you also got the obligatory “objective” counterbalance of “Clinton did it too?”

    More for the CNN sucks; thank god for Talking Points Memo and responsible internet sites file.

    http://ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4574

  55. dnd

    I wonder if it makes McCain feel old to know he’s only three years younger than a certain caveman who’s birthday is today:

    http://comics.com/comics/alleyoop//archive/index.html

  56. dnd

    Remember when McCain, in touting nuclear power, said that nuclear power plants had been in submarines for years and not one mishap?

    Um, maybe not:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080807/ap_on_re_as/japan_us_nuclear_sub_4

  57. LOL @ dnd! great cartoon.

  58. dnd

    Mark Nickolas crunches the numbers on the correlation between popular vote and the electoral college:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/popular-vote-v-electoral_b_117525.html

  59. Chef Sheila

    Pretty good article dnd. that’s what I like about backchannel. You are always learning more and more.

  60. dog's eye view

    The Nickolas article was good, but I still worry about the “Bradley Effect” and whether it’s enough to make 3-5 points hardly reassuring. It is hard to introduce a new product, a la Obama who has not been in the public consciousness for 16 years.

    Most reassuring is how hard Team Obama is working to organize in neighborhoods and identify, register and turn out every persuadable voter.

    This will be an interesting fall.

  61. There is a huge pool of new voters who haven’t been polled yet, chill on the current numbers, meaningless. Many of these people won’t start showing up on voter records till after Labor Day.

  62. Karolenna

    Just got home. Been a busy day. I’ve tried to read everything here and don’t if you have seen this. It was in today’s paper and I thought it was funny. Three debaters Obama, White-Haired Wrinkly Dude, and Paris (She says her ideas are totally hot)

    http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/stahler/index.html

  63. Before I read the rest of the comments I wanted to say that I trust Chuck Todd.

    Since Tim Russert brought Chuck in I would believe that he’s being more honest than the rest of the pollsters are. I don’t believe he’s shading the numbers for ratings.

    Remember that people lie to pollsters all the time and I think that Chuck is being more honest then what several other polls show as being the accurate polls of the current race.

    God Bless.

  64. Karolenna

    Also, anon, I have friends who have had land lines all their lives who have switched solely to cell now. My son has never had a land line and relies on his cell for his only phone. He’s voting for Obama. So I don’t believe they are getting correct figures in the polls. How can they when they can’t reach these people?

    But, Clinton could greatly damage any numbers for the D’s if this charade of hers goes forth.

  65. I’m turning in early, night folks.

  66. Karo…

    Like I said the other day I think Chuck should be the new moderator of MTP.

    I firmly believe that that is what Tim Russert would have wanted.

    And yes the polls don’t mean anything at all right now.

    Catch you all later.

    Good night and …

    God Bless.

  67. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    Good morning folks, no coffee yet……

  68. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    Solzhenitsyn’s Tarnished Legacy
    Understanding the Russian dissident’s sad and paradoxical final years

    http://reason.com/news/show/127971.html

    Good article on the recently departed writer and how we “changed” his tune for Putin.

  69. Chef Sheila

    Good Morning all,

    Yes coffee must be injected……

  70. Chef Sheila

    Hey guys, My first date is coming up on Sunday. To heck with The Clintons and the Media! Woo Hoo!

  71. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    Good luck Sheila!

  72. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    John McCain has some real dumb shits working for him:

    http://www.johnmccain.com/ActionCenter/BlogInteract/BlogInteract.aspx

    They are trying to get people to send out spam to blogs and the blogs are lsited they are targeting! How outdated is that idea?

    What’s next? Flyers under windsheilds?

  73. Chef Sheila

    Bob Cesca is always a fun read.

    Protecting McCain’s Ignorance with a ‘Great Wall of Duh’

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-cesca/protecting-mccains-ignora_b_117565.html

    Senator Obama on Tuesday said of the McBush Republicans, “It’s like these guys take pride in being ignorant.” After eight years trapped aboard this dark ride, finally hearing a Democratic presidential candidate publicly and forcefully refer to the Republicans as ignorant liars ought to be enough to coax even the most indecisive leaner into the Obama column.

    But let’s take the senator’s remark even further. The McBush Republicans don’t just take pride in their ignorance — their entire electoral strategy depends on it.

  74. Chef Sheila

    Thanks Hip. ;0)

  75. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    Brian.

    One of my posts got stuck in spam….very ironic consdiering what it was

  76. dnd

    Speaking of Oprah, the buzz on the local news is that she’ll be in Denver for the convention.

  77. dnd

    Oprah rents a house in Denver for a week. Only spends $50,000. Hope that comes with a fully stocked bar 😉

    http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/07/oprah-rents-digs-for-week-of-dnc/

  78. “Hope that comes with a fully stocked bar 😉

    A slim fast bar?

  79. Steve (Aging Hipster)

    Good writing (it wont take long) and comes with funny pics

    http://www.docudharma.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8307

  80. Chef Sheila

    Hip! Thats some commentary…..lol Imaginative.

  81. That was fun steve. Anyone want to go to my client for me today?

  82. New York Times Falsely Says Obama Is “Struggling To Maintain Parity” In Polls With McCain
    By Greg Sargent – August 8, 2008, 9:53AM

    This falsehood, from a New York Times piece on Hillary, is just plain bizarre:

    Mr. Obama is struggling in the polls to maintain parity with Senator John McCain.

    Huh, I didn’t know that. I thought that The Times’s chart of its own polling shows that Obama has consistently held a lead of at least five points. And I thought Pollster.com’s polling aggregate showed that Obama has been ahead for months.

    http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/new_york_times_falsely_says_ob.php

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